A Numerical-Hierarchical Framework for Predicting Volume Changes in Expansive Soils under Variable Surface and Weather Conditions

This research developed a numerical-hierarchical framework that captured surface conditions and climate parameters. Volume changes under distinct scenarios of boundary, antecedent moisture, meteorological parameters were predicted using coupled seepage-deformation model. Risk was hierarchically based on expert judgment for (Stage-I indices) normal distribution moisture atmospheric (Stage-II indices). Results indicated seasonal volumetric with minor variations −5 mm from January to April, steady settlement −17 by June, gradual heave +8 December. All Stage-I indices showed similar trends such the fluctuations highest vegetation, followed slope, then cover, lowest loading. gradually reduced depth diminished at 3.1 m. Similar profile generally found most Stage-II indices. Nonetheless, different wet dry observed initial water content, precipitation, air temperature. For datum scenario, risk non-existent till February, increased 2.3 October, rose back 1.0 values cyclic in urban facilities. be two times higher parks, insignificant roads, half five story buildings, one-fourth pipes roads. Among indices, content inhibited whereas precipitation about wider distribution; all other one-third values. Under occurrence probability 0.129, magnified critical precipitation.